Iran and “The Deal”

A Coming Together

Iran President Hassan Rouhani

Iran President Hassan Rouhani

The US, Russia, China, Great Britain, France and Germany  (P5+1) have agreed on a framework with Iran to prevent their development of fissile nuclear material in exchange for  relaxation of sanctions considered “the most comprehensive and complex ever imposed on a sovereign state.”

According to Brookings, “Since 2010, the sanctions’ impact on Iran has been severe: its oil exports and revenues plummeted; the value of its currency eroded; trade disruptions shuttered businesses and exacerbated inflation.”

The sanctions worked, bringing Iranian leaders to agree to a framework which effectively blocks Iran’s ability to create highly enriched uranium, weapons grade plutonium or to covertly produce fissile material.

Here in America conservatives decry the deal as the death-knell of Israel complete with specific references to the Holocaust.

Still others employ allusions to Neville Chamberlain and Munich on the eve of WWII as proof of our gullibility or weakness.

The 1979 “War”

If the taking of US hostages in Iran can be likened to a war, at least diplomatically, it is long since time to view Iran’s current status as complex, many-faceted and in some cases, aligned with the US.

Iranians have little reason to trust the US as the CIA overthrew their democratically elected leader in 1953 in order to install a puppet regime inclined toward western interests.

“The CIA is quoted acknowledging the coup was carried out “under CIA direction” and “as an act of U.S. foreign policy, conceived and approved at the highest levels of government.”

Iran  is a non-aligned Shia Islamic state known in part for its bellicose rhetoric towards Israel but it has also cooperated with the US, including in attempting to expel the Taliban from Afghanistan.

ISIS and Iraq

landkarte_iran_irak_afghanistan

Perhaps no-where are our interests more aligned than the desire to confront and defeat ISIS followed by a desire for a stable Iraq.

Iran has more to lose than anyone if ISIS spreads closer to its borders.

Given the success of the economic sanctions, the tactical exclusion of Iran from the anti-ISIS coalition is disastrous.

Iran has a direct strategic interest in stopping ISIS and their agreement on nuclear non-proliferation shows a willingness to engage with the west in order to improve their economy.

An improved Iranian economy means they have more resources to devote to the anti-ISIS fight.

“Let’em Up Easy”

The sanctions worked.

Economic “war” won.

In relation to moving beyond the Civil War, Abraham Lincoln famously said about the vanquished confederates, “Let’em up easy, general.”

And, to engage in some pre-Chamberlain history, most seem to agree that the seeds of WWII were sown in part on the grounds of a very harsh post WWI treaty called Versailles where the vanquished enemy was economically destroyed to the point that Hitler was given a voice.

What hard evidence is there that Iran is materially intent on the nuclear destruction of Israel?

Should false, religiously-inspired rhetoric be allowed to subjugate US strategic policy in the fight against ISIS?

The Iran Deal should be given a chance to work because step one, the sanctions, worked and the world, and our strategic partners, will be watching.

 

Sources:

Times

Brookings

Wiki

Iran’s ISIS policy DINA ESFANDIARY AND ARIANE TABATABAI

 

 

 

 

 

 

7 Comments

  • Betty K says:

    I agree. Let us give the agreement a chance. Betty

  • Eric Lamar says:

    Thanks, Betty.

    Great to hear from you.

    Eric

  • Victoria Huckenpahler says:

    I agree, too, Eric. Sometimes one has to take a risk and extend some trust — even while carefully watching one’s back.

  • Joe says:

    I think you are wrong.
    Once the assets that we have frozen are unfrozen, they will be moved beyond our control.
    Sanctions can’t be turned on and off like a faucet.
    Iran supplied bombs that killed and maimed US servicemen in Iraq. That is much more recent than 1979.
    There are currently 4 Americans being held by Iran now.
    Comparing Iran to our southern states is ridiculous.
    The sanctions aren’t going to produce a Hitler, a Hitler already runs that country.
    There are almost 6,000,000 Jews in Israel today, about the same amount killed in the Holocaust. Is it different if they are burned in ovens over a period of a few years rather than instantly by a nuclear attack?
    If America isn’t prepared to go to war to enforce this agreement, then the agreement isn’t enforceable.
    Name one thing that America got from this agreement other than an unenforceable framework blah blah blah. Name something that Iran didn’t get.
    It is a bad deal.

    • Eric Lamar says:

      You make a lot of declarative statements without facts or support of any kind to the point that it is absurd.

      The leader of Iran is not Hitler.

      There are Americans in jail EVERYWHERE.

      The sanctions surely worked and they can be reinstituted.

      The “they will nuke Israel” stuff is right-wing evangelical christian propaganda.

      Holding up the deal over Iran providing weaponry to Iraq is miss-guided and short-sided. Were that a rational criterion, we would never settle any war anywhere or engage in peace and reconciliation. Have you ever heard of the “Marshall Plan”?

      I did name an essential advancement: an Iran re-entering the world community and ready to take the fight to ISIS.

  • Dyson says:

    The only site where Iran could accomplish this is the Arak reactor, a heavy-water nuclear reactor. Right now, this reactor could be used in a weapons program, but under this deal, the Arak reactor will be redesigned so it cannot produce any weapons-grade plutonium.

  • But under this deal, Iran must reduce its centrifuges to 6,104 for the next ten years. No enrichment will be allowed at the Fordow facility at all, and the only centrifuges Iran will be allowed to use are their oldest and least efficient models.

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